By NCS Marketing
That knot of worry you feel when the cashier rings up your groceries? You're not alone. A significant 86% of Americans are casting a concerned eye towards potential tariff hikes and their impact on the cost of feeding their households. This isn't just a passing thought; over a third (37%) report feeling extremely concerned about the looming possibility of pricier staples. It seems the shadow of tariffs is already stretching across our kitchen counters, making us rethink what we buy and how we buy it.
And as consumers shift their shopping habits, their actions are likely to impact how brands approach their advertising strategies.
The findings are from a new consumer sentiment survey commissioned by NCS, conducted April 3-6.
The anxiety isn't spread evenly across the grocery store. When asked about specific imported items, nearly half (49%) of consumers pinpoint coffee and tea as their primary concern. These daily rituals, the morning jolt and the afternoon calm, are top-of-mind when considering tariff repercussions. Following closely behind are cheese (41%), a refrigerator staple for many, and bananas (36%), a healthy and affordable snack. Seafood, pasta and rice, and chocolate also feature prominently on the worry list, highlighting concerns across diverse food categories, from everyday meals to occasional treats.
Faced with this potential pinch, American consumers are already demonstrating adaptability in their shopping habits. More than half (52%) report a shift towards store-brand or budget-friendly options, an indication they may be prioritizing value. Consumers are also evaluating other options, with 42% of consumers actively comparison shopping. In addition, 38% say they’re buying fewer premium or specialty products. The classic strategies of clipping coupons and searching for online deals are also gaining traction, with 37% embracing these methods. Finally, the bulk-buying trend continues, with 34% opting to stock up in an effort to mitigate future price increases.
So, what happens if tariffs impact the price of imported goods? Consumers are already strategizing their next moves. While a notable 46% anticipate buying less food and beverages overall, 39% plan to lean even more heavily on private label or store brand alternatives. The reliance on deals and promotions will likely increase, with 38% intending to use coupons and weekly sales more frequently. Discount retailers, including superstores and club stores, may see increased traffic, as 36% of consumers say they plan to shift their shopping habits towards these outlets. More than a third of Americans (34%) express a willingness to switch to domestically produced alternatives. However, 16% of Americans believe their shopping habits will remain unchanged.
Overall, 44% of Americans say they feel pessimistic about the health of the economy right now, compared to 37% who are optimistic. This contrasts with 43% who say they are optimistic about their personal finances, and 25% who say they are pessimistic about their check book. Nearly one in three (32%) Americans are neutral about how they currently feel about their personal finances.
Looking at CPG purchasing trends offers another layer to this story. In March 2025 compared to March 2024, household spending on celebratory items like sparkling wine (up 21%), wine (up 12%), and beer (up 10%) saw significant increases. Conversely, spending decreased on items like chocolate (-19%), canned tuna (-3%), nuts (-2%), cheese (-2%), and pasta (-2%).
In the consumer sentiment survey, Americans said they were most concerned about the impact of tariffs on coffee and black tea. According to NCS purchase data, U.S. household spending on coffee was up 1% in March 2025 compared to March 2024. Purchases of black tea were flat year over year.
The Bottom Line for Brands
While American consumers express concerns about potential tariff impacts and indicate a willingness to adapt their grocery shopping, this evolving landscape presents opportunities for CPG brands. By leveraging purchase-based insights, brands can gain a deeper understanding of shifting consumer behaviors, enabling a more agile and data-driven approach to campaign planning and optimization. Maintaining brand visibility through consistent advertising remains crucial for staying top-of-mind as consumers navigate these changes, whether the goal is to reinforce loyalty or connect with new shoppers.
About the Data
NCS commissioned a consumer sentiment survey and coupled with that survey consumer packaged goods purchase data from March 2024 and March 2025. Both sets of data are used above.
The consumer sentiment survey of 1,064 U.S. adult consumers was conducted between April 3 and April 6, and results are weighted to be representative of the U.S. population by age, gender, region, ethnicity, marital status, education level and household income.
NCS’s representative and balanced consumer CPG purchase data set consists of the industry’s preeminent and comprehensive sources. It includes actual purchase data (transaction information) from big-box retailers, supermarkets, drug stores, convenience stores and other retail channels at which American households buy CPG products spanning 340+ grocery categories. The NCSolutions purchase data was analyzed in April 2025.
Fair Use
When using this data and research, please attribute by linking to this study and citing NCSolutions.